Pathways to Change: Analysing Democratic Transition Scenarios in Belarus under Regime Instability and Weakened Russian Influence
Giselle Bosse & Wicke van den Broek.
This Working Paper analyses potential scenarios for democratic transition in Belarus considering the hypothetical context of regime instability and weakened Russian influence. It explores four possible outcomes following peaceful mass mobilisation: violent crackdown, regime collapse, negotiated transition, and gradual reform, assessing their likelihood, conditions, and possible implications. The analysis suggests that while large-scale mobilisation remains unlikely, gradual reform is the most plausible short- to medium-term scenario, driven by economic pressures and the regime’s need for stability. It outlines key recommendations for the European Union, including maintaining strategic flexibility, strengthening support for civil society, improving international coordination, and enhancing communication with Belarus. The paper concludes that although opportunities for democratic change could increase if Russian influence weakens, substantial obstacles to genuine democratisation persist.
EMBRACE Working Paper 02