Georgia, EU, Russia and the Oligarch: Can the EU Untangle the Knot?
Aprasidze, David and Gvalia, Giorgi
This policy brief examines Georgia’s authoritarian turn and its implications for the European Union’s (EU) strategic interests in the Eastern Partnership and Black Sea region. Once a frontrunner of democratization and EU integration, Georgia was granted candidate status in 2023 but has since stalled reforms, introduced illiberal legislation, and aligned more closely with authoritarian regimes, including Russia. This reversal, driven by oligarchic capture and personalized rule, undermines Georgia’s democratic trajectory while reshaping the EU’s leverage in the South Caucasus. The country’s drift threatens Armenia’s fragile westward orientation, endangers EU access to critical Black Sea–Caspian transit routes, and weakens the Union’s normative influence in its neighbourhood. As geopolitical competition intensifies, with Russia, China, and Turkey seeking influence, the EU faces structural constraints yet must avoid a purely transactional approach. The brief outlines potential scenarios for EU–Georgia relations and argues for a recalibrated strategy that combines targeted pressure on the regime with enhanced support for civil society, credible conditionality, and regional cooperation. Losing Georgia to authoritarian influence would mark a major setback to the EU’s strategic presence and democratic ambitions in its eastern neighbourhood.
EMBRACE Policy Brief 07