The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition
Bechev, Dimitar, Armakolas, Ioannis and Krstinovska, Ana (2025).
This Policy Report examines the European Union’s capacity to promote democracy in its neighbourhood amid growing challenges from authoritarian powers such as Russia and China and complex domestic political dynamics. Drawing on comparative analysis from Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine, it explores how external authoritarian strategies and internal political conditions shape EU leverage. The report highlights that EU democracy promotion is most effective when combined with credible enlargement prospects and coherent conditionality, while authoritarian rivals exploit domestic vulnerabilities through coercion, subversion, and co-optation. It emphasises that democracy outcomes are shaped not only by institutional tools but also by the interplay of domestic politics and geopolitical competition. The report concludes with recommendations for tailoring EU instruments, engagement with political elites and civil society, and communication strategies to enhance the effectiveness of democracy promotion in contested contexts.
ELIAMEP Policy Paper 183